Variation in Seasonal Precipitation over Gaza (Palestine) and Its Sensitivity to Teleconnection Patterns

Salah Basem Ajjur,Sami G Al-Ghamdi

doi:10.3390/w13050667

Salah Basem Ajjur, Sami G Al-Ghamdi

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050667

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Mar 1, 2021
Citations: 7	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Hamad bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation

Abstract

The seasonal precipitation (SP) trend and its sensitivity to teleconnection patterns over the East Mediterranean (EM) region remain inconsistent. Based on rainfall records during 1974–2016 at seven meteorological stations in the Gaza region, this study aims to (1) analyze the observed SP trend over the Gaza region, and (2) examine the SP sensitivity to climate indices. Pearson and Spearman correlations between climate indices and SP in the current and following years were calculated, and the seasonal period (particular month) with the highest correlation was identified. Results show that the climate indices, with greater impact on SP over the Gaza region in the autumn and spring, were in the order; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) > North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) > Arctic Oscillation (AO). The indices’ impact was minimal in the winter precipitation. ENSO types’ correlations (Southern Oscillation Index-SOI and Niño 3.4) were moderate and significant at α = 0.05. Rainfall at most stations positively correlates with AO and EAWR in spring and autumn. During the study period, warm phases of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) intensified autumn precipitation. Simultaneously with warm phases of EAWR or AO, more influence on autumn precipitation is exerted. Cold phases of ENSO (i.e., La Niña) have an adverse impact compared to El Niño. EAWR co-variation was evident only with the ENSO. Regarding AO, a non-meaningful action was noticed during the neutral phases of ENSO and EAWR. The findings of this study help understand and predict the seasonal trend of precipitation over the Gaza region. This is essential to set up climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the EM region.

Highlights

This study analyzed rainfall records at seven meteorological stations over the Gaza region to examine the observed trend of seasonal precipitation (SP) during 1974–2016 and to investigate its sensitivity to the principal modes of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), SOI, Niño 3.4, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR)
The results may serve as good indicators for the trend of SP over the East Mediterranean (EM) region
During 1974–2016, 64% of all precipitation fell in winter, 22% fell in autumn, and

Summary

Introduction

Understanding precipitation changes is fundamental to mitigate its risk and various adaptation measures, especially in developing countries. The latter have high population densities, limited water resources, and poor infrastructures, making them vulnerable to precipitation changes. Extremes in precipitation affect social and economic development and may result in lives losses [1]. It affects crop yield and regional economic systems negatively [2]. Their current implications are alarming for scientists and decision-makers

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