Variation in Extreme Temperature and Its Instability in China

Abstract

In this study, the instability of extreme temperatures is defined as the degree of perturbation of the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme temperatures, which is to show the uncertainty of the intensity and occurrence of extreme temperatures in China. Based on identifying the extreme temperatures and by analyzing their variability, we refer to the entropy value in the entropy weight method to study the instability of extreme temperatures. The results show that TXx (annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature) and TNn (annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature) in China increased at 0.18 °C/10 year and 0.52 °C/10 year, respectively, from 1966 to 2015. The interannual data of TXx’ occurrence (CTXx) and TNn’ occurrence (CTNn), which are used to identify the timing of extreme temperatures, advance at 0.538 d/10 year and 1.02 d/10 year, respectively. In summary, extreme low-temperature changes are more sensitive to global warming. The results of extreme temperature instability show that the relative instability region of TXx is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the relative instability region of TNn is concentrated in the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Langtang River source area and parts of Tibet. The relative instability region of CTXx instability is distributed between 105° E and 120° E south of the 30° N latitude line, while the distribution of CTNn instability region is more scattered; the TXx’s instability intensity is higher than TNn’s, and CTXx’s instability intensity is higher than CTNn’s. We further investigate the factors affecting extreme climate instability. We also find that the increase in mean temperature and the change in the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon has significant effects on extreme temperature instability.