Variation in Body Composition Determines Long-Term Blood Pressure Changes in Pre-Hypertension: The MONICA/KORA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants on Cardiovascular Diseases/Cooperative Research in the Region of Augsburg) Cohort Study

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We studied the relationship between changes in body composition and changes in blood pressure levels. The mechanisms underlying the frequently observed progression from pre-hypertension to hypertension are poorly understood. We examined 1,145 subjects from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/1995 and at follow-up in 2004/2005. First, we studied individuals pre-hypertensive at baseline who, during 10 years of follow-up, either had normalized blood pressure (PreNorm, n = 48), persistently had pre-hypertension (PrePre, n = 134), or showed progression to hypertension (PreHyp, n = 183). In parallel, we studied predictors for changes in blood pressure category in individuals hypertensive at baseline (n = 429). After 10 years, the PreHyp group was characterized by a marked increase in body weight (+5.71% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.60% to 6.83%]) that was largely the result of an increase in fat mass (+17.8% [95% CI: 14.5% to 21.0%]). In the PrePre group, both the increases in body weight (+1.95% [95% CI: 0.68% to 3.22%]) and fat mass (+8.09% [95% CI: 4.42% to 11.7%]) were significantly less pronounced than in the PreHyp group (p < 0.001 for both). The PreNorm group showed no significant change in body weight (-1.55% [95% CI: -3.70% to 0.61%]) and fat mass (+0.20% [95% CI: -6.13% to 6.52%], p < 0.05 for both, vs. the PrePre group). After 10 years of follow-up, hypertension developed in 50.1% of individuals with pre-hypertension and only 6.76% went from hypertensive to pre-hypertensive blood pressure levels. An increase in body weight and fat mass was a risk factor for the development of sustained hypertension, whereas a decrease was predictive of a decrease in blood pressure.