Variation in Atmospheric Precipitation in Poland in the Years 2001–2018

Joanna Kopcińska,Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek

doi:10.3390/atmos11080794

Joanna Kopcińska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080794

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Journal: Atmosphere	Publication Date: Jul 28, 2020
Citations: 35	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Agriculture in Krakow

Abstract

Climate change scenarios are in agreement as to the direction of air temperature changes in global warming, although the magnitude of the warming depends on the scenario adopted. In contrast, projections of changes in precipitation totals in Poland are not clear and obvious. Analysis of long-term observational series reveals no clear significant trends in levels of precipitation, despite periods of fluctuation, as well as an upward trend reported in the annual amount of precipitation, especially in northern Poland. However, the increasing variability of annual rainfall totals is commonly highlighted. In the years 1861–1990, the coefficient of variation of annual precipitation totals increased from about 10% to 16%. In the years 1971–2000, this coefficient for Poland increased to 17%, and in the period of 2001–2018, which is the subject of the present study, to 19%. Despite the lack of clear trends in annual totals, the increase in the coefficient of variation results in an increase in the frequency of both drought and floods. This unfavorable situation is exacerbated by the downward trend observed in the share of summer rainfall in the annual total. In urban areas with increasing surface sealing, the share of surface runoff in the water balance increases, and in this situation short-term rainfall will cause local flooding.

Highlights

Global climate change is commonly identified with global warming, i.e., the observed, forecasted, and expected increase in air temperature, and the resulting increase in the length of the growing season, the possibility of growing thermophilic plants, summer heat waves, and milder winters
The stepwise multiple regression model of the dependence of annual precipitation totals on latitude, longitude, and altitude shows that the relationship between the geographical parameters of the meteorological stations and the total annual precipitation is best described by the following mathematical model: P = 60789.07629 − 2327.04602 φ − 0.43142 h + 22.47510 φ2 + 0.00263 h2 (7)
Comparison of precipitation totals averaged for the whole of Poland with results reported by other authors for selected earlier periods shows that the precipitation total of 624.5 mm for the period

Summary

Introduction

Global climate change is commonly identified with global warming, i.e., the observed, forecasted, and expected increase in air temperature, and the resulting increase in the length of the growing season, the possibility of growing thermophilic plants, summer heat waves, and milder winters. Other elements of the climate are changing as well, especially precipitation, evaporation, cloud cover, and wind, and their values are not always increasing. In terms of the consequences of global climate change, seem to be more significant and important than rising temperatures [1,2,3]. In this case, temperature changes can be considered as the background to or cause of changes in water resources. The course of precipitation, especially in large cities, is modified by specific urban conditions, with high surface roughness, high aerosol concentrations, and urban heat islands playing a major role.

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Conclusion