Variation and Forecasting of Land Surface Temperature in Malaysia

Abstract

Long-term variations in temperature and weather patterns provide evidence that the planet is experiencing global warming. The detrimental consequences of global warming on the ecosystem have affected people, plants, and animals. The rising Land Surface Temperature (LST) in a region has become a crucial indicator for determining specific climate change policies. Malaysia is divided into Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah Sarawak, located on Borneo Island, comprising four super-regions and 36 sub-regions. The distance between sub-regions, measured in latitudes and longitudes, is 150 pixels (equivalent to 95 kilometres), covering the entire country. This study uses data from NASA’s Terra satellites’ Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) covering 2000–2022. Eight, four, and three knots were deployed on the cubic spline equation to analyse cyclical data, variation, and the LST forecast from 2022 to 2030. The global mean rise in LST variation per decade is 0.445°C, with a significance level of 5%, from a confidence interval of [0.377, 0.507]°C. The average predicted fluctuation in LST indicates a significant rise of 0.383°C per decade. Malaysia has not shown a significant decrease in LST acceleration at the 0.05 significance level, and a p-value of 0.06 suggests that LST variation is still increasing. Compared to the Sabah Sarawak group, which experiences LST deceleration, most Peninsular Malaysia group experiences LST acceleration.