Variance gamma for stock model performance with excess kurtosis

Abstract

The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model is used widely for model the dynamic of asset price movement. One of the company’s assets is a stock. The distribution of stock data that is normally distributed can be modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion model. However, the distribution of stock data showed excess kurtosis and tail when using the Brown Geometry Motion model was less precise. One model for data showing excess kurtosis and tail was Variance Gamma (VG). In this research, the sample used was the stock data of PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk for the period April 25 th , 2018 to April 24 th , 2020. The data sample was divided into two parts, namely training data and testing data. Based on the result of the stock description statistics, the value of skewness = -2.105417 and kurtosis = 22.16438 was obtained, while hypothesis testing concluded that the stock distribution did not spread normally. The resulting parameters for the VG model were σ = 0.08071, v = 8.00500 and θ = 0.01976. Based on the results of testing on the last 38 observations, the MAPE value was = 6.97560%. These results gave the conclusion that the VG model provided excellent forecasting results.