Variable spatio-temporal clustering of microseismicity in the Hellenic Subduction Zone as possible indicator for fluid migration

Abstract

This study investigates the variability of spatio-temporal microseismicity clustering and the occurrence of mutual triggering of events along the subduction interface in south-eastern Aegean as indication for fluid flow along and above the plate interface. We quantify spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal microseismicity clustering from the outer to the inner forearc and at intermediate depths. Waveform similarity indicates a decreasing of spatially clustered events from the outer and central towards the inner forearc and at intermediate depths. Highly similar events (cross-correlation >0.9), used as proxy for spatial clustering, decrease from the outer (30.2%) and central forearc (34.9%), towards the inner forearc (20.5%) and at intermediate depth (6.9%). Such highly similar events show increasing median inter-event times from the outer and central towards the inner forearc and at intermediate depth: 0.35, 0.34, 16.45, and 70 days, respectively. The Epidemic-Type-Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model, employed to investigate microseismicity temporal clustering, indicates an increase of the percentage of independent events from the outer (32%) and central (46%) forearc, to the inner forearc (93%) and at intermediate depth (93%). Hence, ETAS results suggest that mutual triggering of events is significant in the outer and central forearc, and it is almost absent in the inner forearc and at intermediate depths. Autocorrelation analysis, investigating spatio-temporal clustering, shows the tendency of earthquakes to occur close in space and time in the outer and central forearc, while in the inner forearc, and especially at intermediate depth, earthquakes are more homogeneously and randomly distributed. Combining the results from spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal analysis, we suggest that the different spatio-temporal patterns hint at systematic variations in the presence of migrating fluids on active faults close to failure. Triggering of seismicity is significant in the outer and central forearc, indicating fluid flow from the subduction interface, and it is diminishing towards the inner forearc. At intermediate depths, the nearly complete absence of mutual triggering of earthquakes indicates that there is little evidence for migration of fluids on active faults close to failure. Because intermediate depth seismicity in the Hellenic subduction zone occurs at P-T conditions where dehydration reactions are expected, fluids released by dehydration reactions within the slab are very likely migrating directly into the overlying mantle without triggering earthquakes.