Abstract
Modeling realistic human decision-making is an important feature of good policy design processes. The use of an agent-based modeling framework allows for quantitative human decision-models that assume fully rational agents. This research introduces a dynamic human decision-making sub-model. The parameterisation of human memory and “rationality” in a decision-making model represents an important extension of decision-making in ABMs. A data driven model of herd movement within a dynamic natural environment is the context for evaluating the cognitive decision-making model. The natural and human environments are linked via memory and rationality that affect herdsmen decision-making to vaccinate cattle using a once-for-life vaccine (Rift Valley fever) and an annual booster vaccine (Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia). The simulation model uses environmental data from Samburu county, Kenya from 2004 to 2015. The cognitive parameters of memory and “rationality” are shown to successfully differentiate between vaccination decisions that are characterized by annual and once-for-life choices. The preliminary specifications and findings from the dynamic cognition–pastoralist agent-based model (PastoralScape) indicate that the model offers much to livestock vaccination modeling among small-scale herders.
Highlights
The economic sustainability of traditional pastoralist modes of livestock management is threatened by environmental, political and cultural forces across East Africa [1, 2]
A review of decision-making paradigms used in animal health demonstrates the wide use of qualitative and quantitative decision frameworks [6]
The parameterization of human memory and “rationality” in a decision-making model represents an important extension of decision-making in Agent or individual-based modeling (ABM)
Summary
The economic sustainability of traditional pastoralist modes of livestock management is threatened by environmental, political and cultural forces across East Africa [1, 2]. The increased frequency of droughts in East Africa over the past 20-years has sorely tested the resilience of livestock dependent communities in the region [3, 4]. The need to model the complex interaction between natural and human system, as they affect livestock, is a research topic deserving further attention [5]. The role of human decision-making as it affects livestock health adds to the complexity of such systems. A review of decision-making paradigms used in animal health demonstrates the wide use of qualitative and quantitative decision frameworks [6]. Prospect Theory is a common means of identifying heterogeneous
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