Abstract
AbstractThe sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top‐edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near‐shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.
Highlights
Tsunami hazard assessment involves various assumptions and approximations
This study investigated the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation footprints in 10 coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions
The variations of earthquake source characteristics were represented with respect to the Satake et al source model by changing the top-edge depth, strike, dip, and slip distributions
Summary
Tsunami hazard assessment involves various assumptions and approximations. Tsunami hazard estimates for future scenarios are uncertain. From a tsunami risk management perspective, accurate assessment of tsunami hazards and quantification of uncertainty associated with the assessment are essential to mitigate and control disaster risk exposures effectively. Spatial variability of tsunami hazards due to future events has important implications on tsunami resistant design of structures and evacuation planning [Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 2008; Murata et al, 2010]. Facing major uncertainty, assessing the sensitivity as well as variability of tsunami simulations provides valuable insights into tsunami risk reduction measures [Geist, 2002; Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE), 2002; McCloskey et al, 2008; Løvholt et al, 2012; MacInnes et al, 2013; Satake et al, 2013; Goda et al, 2014]
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