Variability of the Lake Onega ice coverage in the period 2000-2018 according to the satellite data

Abstract

Studying of characteristics of the Lake Onega ice regime and investigating of the climate influence on the formation and destruction of the ice cover requires a continuous chronological series of data on the Lake ice coverage. Ice cover is the percentage of the ice area to the total area of the lake. In 1955–1990, calculations of the ice coverage of the Lake were based on the use of the results of airborne ice reconnaissance. On average for this period, from 5 to 15 values were annually obtained, which was not enough for a comprehensive analysis of the ice coverage variability. In this paper, for the frst time, a daily series of values of the ice coverage of the Lake Onega for the period 2000–2018 had been formed basing on the results of a combined analysis of the following satellite data sets: NSIDC, NOAA NESDIS, corrected by data of the satellite MODIS sensor. Values from November to May were grouped from the above data sets without regards for years of observations, and then the regression analysis of these values made possible to create a model (a polynomial of the 8th degree) of the chronological course of the ice coverage during the period of the ice phenomena existence on the Lake Onega. Te coefcient of determination of the model is 0.74, and the error in determining the ice coverage is 21%. Te average dates of the beginning, end, and duration of periods of the formation (from November 25th to January 19th), the destruction (from April 13th to May 17th) of the ice cover, as well as the total freeze-up time (from January 20th to April 12th) on the Lake Onega for the period 2000–2018 was determined. Te period of ice phenomena on the Lake Onega on average lasts for almost half a year (175 days), of which a signifcant part of the time is a complete freeze-up (84 days). It was found that the rate of formation of the ice cover (1.76% per day) on the Lake Onega is 1.65 times smaller than the rate of its destruction (2.90% per day), which approximately corresponds to similar results obtained for the Lake Ladoga (1.5 times).