Variability of precipitation and temperature in Guanajuato, Mexico

Abstract

Variability of precipitation and temperature was examined on multiple time scales using data from five surface observing stations in the center of Guanajuato state, Mexico, as well as gridded data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Frequency of days with total precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile was not found to have increased from 1979-2011. However, frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 90th percentile more than doubled from 1979-2011, and frequency of days with maximum temperature below the 10th percentile decreased by almost half over the same period, an important result given the scarcity of water resources for the agriculture-based economy. Precipitation within the growing season was found to vary by phase of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO phases 1-3 associated with above-normal rainfall and MJO phases 4-7 with normal or below normal rainfall. Composite anomalies of precipitation, surface pressure, surface wind, surface temperature, and 700 mbar height showed that days with rainfall in Guanajuato were associated with on-shore, upslope flow, reduced surface temperatures, and reduced potential evaporation. Composites for MJO phases 1-3 and 8 agreed well with these anomalies. Similarly, composite anomalies for days without rainfall in Guanajuato showed warm surface temperatures, broad anticyclonic flow over much of northern Mexico, and enhanced potential evaporation. Composites for MJO phases 4-7 agreed well with these anomalies.