Abstract
ABSTRACT The sensitivity of hurricane-driven storm surge in the Houston Ship Channel Industrial Corridor to variations in storm characteristics is studied. Hurricane surge from Hurricane Ike from 2008 was simulated using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh model. Use of the HURDAT2 wind parameter database allowed alteration of relevant hurricane characteristics to develop these alternate scenarios. Moving the actual landfall location of Ike toward the southwest at a distance of 50 km yielded a 123% increase at Manchester relative to observations during the storm. Relocation of the landfall location 200 km further southwest caused a 40% decrease in water level at the Galveston Bay entrance relative to observed values, but with a corresponding 50% water level increase at Manchester. Reduction of the storm forward speed to 25% of the actual speed over the nearshore led to a 25% increase in water level in Manchester over recorded values, while a 57% reduction of the storm forward speed over land increased water levels in Manchester by 30%. Incorporating river flow also identified locations where Galena Park’s residual floodwater is likely to remain after flooding. The results of this work can be used to guide modeling efforts of storm impacts on areas with narrow waterways.
Published Version
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