Variability in fire - climate relationships in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range

Abstract

Understanding the interactions of climate variability and wildfire has been a primary objective of recent fire history research. The present study examines the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on fire occurrence using fire-scar evidence from 58 sites from the lower ecotone to the upper elevational limits of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in northern Colorado. An important finding is that at low v. high elevations within the montane zone, climatic patterns conducive to years of widespread fire are different. Differences in fire–climate relationships are manifested primarily in antecedent year climate. Below ~2100 m, fires are dependent on antecedent moister conditions that favour fine fuel accumulation 2 years before dry fire years. In the upper montane zone, fires are dependent primarily on drought rather than an increase in fine fuels. Throughout the montane zone, fire is strongly linked to variations in moisture availability that in turn is linked to climate influences of ENSO, PDO and AMO. Fire occurrence is greater than expected during the phases of each index associated with drought. Regionally widespread fire years are associated with specific phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO. In particular, the combination of La Niña, negative PDO and positive AMO is highly conducive to widespread fire.