Abstract
This paper reviews the most recent and relevant research into the variability characteristics of wind and solar power resources in Europe. The background for this study is that wind and solar resources will probably constitute major components of the future European power system. Such resources are variable, and EU plans to balance the variability with more grids and demand response. Thus, planning for the future power system requires an in-depth understanding of the variability. Resource variability is a multi-faceted concept best described using a range of distinct characteristics, and this review is structured on the basis of seven of these: Distribution Long-Term (hours to years), Distribution Short-Term (less than one hour), Step Changes, Autocorrelation, Spatial Correlation, Cross Correlation and Predictable Patterns. The review presents simulations and empirical results related to resource variability for each of these characteristics. Results to date reveal that the variability characteristics of the future power system is limited understood. This study recommends the development of a scheme for greater systematic assessment of variability. Such a scheme will contribute to the understanding of the impacts of variability and will make it possible to compare alternative power production portfolios and impacts of grid expansions, demand response and storage technologies.
Highlights
Given EU’s ambition for increases of wind and solar power production and for increased integration of the power system, we review in this paper what is the knowledge of how different penetration levels of wind and solar power production, the mixes of the resources and the localisation of the resources can smooth out variability
The review is motivated by EUs long term targets for renewable power production and for their ambition to use demand flexibility and increased interconnectors to reduce variability challenges
By review of available scientific literature, we aim to identify the knowledge front for variability of future wind and solar power production along two dimensions:
Summary
The need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely accepted, and a transformation of the energy system will represent an important contribution towards these reductions. In 2013, Denmark, Germany and Spain had renewable electricity generation shares of 56%, 25% and 42% respectively, with more than half of this share being from wind and solar energy in each country [2]. The European Council of October 2014 called for all EU Member States to achieve interconnections of at least 10% of their installed electricity production capacity by 2020. In Northern Europe in general and for Germany in particular the hydropower system in Scandinavia is considered as an opportunity for balancing variable renewable production. This is among other described by the Germany Advisory Council on Environment in their study “Pathways to 100% renewable electricity system” [5]. In periods with deficits in wind and solar power production in Germany and neighbouring countries, the hydro power production in Scandinavia can be increased to meet the demand in the deficit areas
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