Variability and Trends of the Florida Current and Implications for the Future of the Gulf Stream

Abstract

Pietrafesa, L.J.; Bao, S.; Gayes, P.T.; Carpenter, D.D., and Kowal, J.C., 2022. Variability and trends of the Florida current and implications for the future of the Gulf Stream. Journal of Coastal Research, 38(6), 1096–1103. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Ocean Basin Western Boundary Current, plays a key role in moderating the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean Basin and surrounding landmasses. However, the Gulf Stream has been widely reported in the public media to be slowing down in its volumetric transport to the north, related to the reported weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The recent exposé claims that the Gulf Stream may be in the throes of an irreversible collapse. This would have serious implications for the future climate of not only the United States, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia, the British Isles, and Europe, but for the entire planet, per se. In this study, investigations of the volumetric flux of the Florida Current took place that constitutes the formative beginning of the Gulf Stream at the Florida Straits to determine if there is evidence of a slowing of this major Western Boundary Current at the latitude of its beginning source. Findings include multiple, well-defined frequency and amplitude modulated internal modes of current variability in the 38-year record of Florida Current volumetric transport, ranging from weekly to monthly to seasonally to annually to interannually and decadal. The time series reveals an overall slowing of approximately 0.98×106 meters3/second (equivalent to approximately one Sverdrup), or a 2.795% drop over the nearly four past decades of daily observations.