Abstract
Recent experimental work on heavy gas dispersion, confirming that the degree of variability between apparently identical releases is not small, is discussed in terms of a simple statistical framework. It is concluded (consistent with earlier work) that there is strong justification for the further development of mathematical models for hazard assessment that take explicit account of variability. Such models will, of course, have to be tested experimentally but it is argued that, in practice, experimental estimates of the degree of variability depend strongly on the detailed characteristics of the concentration sensors, and some model calculations are presented in support of this view. The role of molecular diffusion is also considered as is, finally, the question of the number of repetitions of a release that are needed to obtain reliable estimates of statistical properties.
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