Variability and extremes of winter temperatures in Europe 1870–1980

Abstract

An attempt is made to study, by statistical treatment of surface observations, the fluctuations in variability of winter temperatures during the past century at eight selected European stations, four of them being considered as maritime and four continental in their location. Variability has been studied by three different parameters: interannual variability of winter months by consecutive decades from 1870–1980, intermonthly variability throughout the winters by consecutive decades from 1870–1980 and frequency of extreme values of monthly winter temperatures by consecutive decades from 1870–1980. Both interannual and intermonthly variability are shown to have been at a minimum during the decades of a strong climate maritimity in the beginning of this century (1900–1920) and at a maximum during the decades of transition (1930–1950) from the mild era in the first four decades of the century to a colder period. There is no clear indication that variability increased during the most recent decades although Moscow, the most eastern of the used stations, shows high variability in recent time. Extreme values seem to be increasing in frequency during recent decades in both maritime and continental parts of Europe although the maximum in frequency of extreme values occurred in the transition period 1930–1950.