Abstract
This study investigates the funding and implementation of China's reformed pension system, particularly the impact of population aging on the system and the government’s recessive debt on pensions. We performed a literature review of relevant publications on the pension system in China as well as similar systems abroad. We also performed an in-depth analysis of the pension insurance fund in China’s Zhejiang province, based on available data from 2001 through 2014. Using a time series ARIMA forecasting model and a comprehensive prediction model, in conjunction with theories from economics, statistics and sociology, we tried to establish the implicit pension debt (IPD) for Zhejiang and determine the pension payment feasibility for the next 15 years. We use our findings to explain the current problems with the pension system in Zhejiang and offer suggestions for improvement.
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