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Abstract
Models for valuing an option to exchange one commodity for another, or any combination of n input commodities for some combination of m outputs, are applied to the capital budgeting problem-making it possible to draw sound conclusions about the valuation effects of flexibility and innovativeness. New algorithms enable practical application of the model to complex flexible manufacturing facilities. Careful attention to estimating the matrix of correlations among the prices of potential inputs and outputs involves explicit integration of financial analysis and strategic analysis-especially the influence of substitutes and the anticipated reactions of competitors, suppliers, and potential new entrants.
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