Abstract

The ductile failure criteria proposed in the Base report appear appropriate except that stress intensity values, S/sub m/ should be based on lower safety factors and ductility should be added as a criterion. A safety factor for stress intensity, s/sub m/ of 4 is recommended rather than 3 on minimum ultimate tensile strength, S/sub u/ in accordance with ASME code philosophy of assigning higher safety factors to cast ductile iron than to steel. This more conservative approach has no impact on costs since the selection of wall thickness is controlled by shielding rather than by stress considerations. The addition of a ductility criterion is recommended because of the problems associated with the selection of appropriate brittle failure criteria and the potential for cast ductile iron to have extremely low elongation at failure. Neither a materials nor a linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) approach appear to be viable for demonstrating the prevention of brittle failure in cast ductile iron shipping casks. It is possible that the analytic methods predict brittle failure because of extremely conservative assumptions whereas real casks may not fail. Model drop tests could be used to demonstrate containment integrity. It is estimated that a risk committment of at least $1,000,000 would be required for engineering, design, model fabrication and testing. Before taking such risks, a mechanism should be found to obtain concurrence from NRC that the results of the test would be acceptable. Probabilistic approaches or model testing could be used to demonstrate the acceptability of cast ductile iron casks from a brittle failure point of view. Before probabilistic methods can be used, the NRC would have to be persuaded to accept the approach of the Competent Authority in West Germany or more formalized methods for probabilistic risk assessments.

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