Value Theory in the Prediction of Political Behavior: The Navajo Case

Abstract

THE writing of this paper was stimulated by an article by Evon Z. Vogt, On Concepts of Structure and Process in Cultural Anthropology (1960). The problem which interests him is the analysis of crucial variables influencing directional processes in a society . . . the extent to which technological-environmental forms, social structural arrangements, or cultural beliefs and values are decisive in particular situations (p. 25). He says, do not hypothesize that the value system generates or maintains the process of change, but that it may have a decisive effect upon the direction the processes will take (p. 26). He then analyzes the line of development of Navajo ceremonialism which he traces to Navajo value-emphasis upon bodily health. He suggests that a similar analysis be made of other sub-systems. I have accepted the suggestion and turn my attention now to Navajo political behavior, the subject of my field research over a period of seven years. Three methods suggest themselves: first, to establish the fact of a specific change and then to analyze the relative weight of the factors which have contributed to the change. Second, to predict the advent of a certain change and then to wait patiently for 20 years in the hopes that the prediction will come true. (I have used both methods in my doctoral dissertation on Navajo political process.) I propose now to try a third method, that is, to note an event, and then to cut back in imagination for 20 years to see if this change could have been predicted or was predicted from an identification of the value system of the society.