Value of Real-World Evidence for Treatment Selection: A Case Study in Colon Cancer.

Abstract

Real-world evidence (RWE)-derived from analysis of real-world data (RWD)-has the potential to guide personalized treatment decisions. However, because of potential confounding, generating valid RWE is challenging. This study demonstrates how to responsibly generate RWE for treatment decisions. We validate our approach by demonstrating that we can uncover an existing adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) guideline for stage II and III colon cancer (CC)-which came about using both data from randomized controlled trials and expert consensus-solely using RWD. Data from the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry from a total of 27,056 patients with stage II and III CC who underwent curative surgery were analyzed to estimate the overall survival (OS) benefit of ACT. Focusing on 5-year OS, the benefit of ACT was estimated for each patient using G-computation methods by adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics and estimated propensity score. Subsequently, on the basis of these estimates, an ACT decision tree was constructed. The constructed decision tree corresponds to the current Dutch guideline: patients with stage III or stage II with T stage 4 should receive surgery and ACT, whereas patients with stage II with T stage 3 should only receive surgery. Interestingly, we do not find sufficient RWE to conclude against ACT for stage II with T stage 4 and microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H), a recent addition to the current guideline. RWE, if used carefully, can provide a valuable addition to our construction of evidence on clinical decision making and therefore ultimately affect treatment guidelines. Next to validating the ACT decisions advised in the current Dutch guideline, this paper suggests additional attention should be paid to MSI-H in future iterations of the guideline.