Value of long-term isotope monitoring of an index lake for tracking changes in lake water balances across a northern freshwater landscape

Abstract

Study regionThe Peace-Athabasca Delta, northeastern Alberta, a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. Study focusTo explore the cause of change in water isotope composition at an ‘index lake’ (δSSL; ‘PAD 18’), a terminal basin where inflow equals evaporation, and the consequences for characterizing lake water balance across a region subject to the same atmospheric conditions. For two decades, water isotope composition at PAD 18 provided a relatively constant, reliable estimate of δSSL, but experienced a pronounced shift in 2020–2021 when average flux-weighted ice-free season relative humidity increased by 4.6% from 66.2% (2015–2019) to 70.8% (2020–2021). Using flux-weighted air temperature and relative humidity data from 2020–2021, an independent calculation of δSSL was determined to be equivalent to the average isotope composition of PAD 18 during 2020–2021. New hydrological insightsResults reveal re-equilibration of the lake water with the atmosphere following the rise of relative humidity readily provides an explanation for the change in isotope composition of PAD 18. We demonstrate the importance of accurate characterization of δSSL, via the index lake method, for isotope-mass balance calculations using evaporation-to-inflow ratios from measurement of water isotope compositions of 61 lakes across the PAD in July 2021. Findings highlight the value of an index lake and appropriate parameterization of isotope-mass balance models for assessment and ongoing monitoring of water balances of nearby lakes, especially amidst future climatic variability.