Value of long-term inflow forecast for hydropower operation: A case study in a low forecast precision region

Abstract

Many studies have evaluated the value of long-term inflow forecast for hydropower operation in high-precision watersheds and explored the impact of forecast uncertainty on hydropower benefits. However, few of them focuses on the low-accuracy regions and the specific impact of forecast errors on hydropower benefits. Taking Hunjiang cascaded system in China as an example, this study investigated the value of low accuracy long-term inflow forecast for hydropower operation, revealed the influence mechanism of forecast errors on hydropower benefits, and determined the critical threshold for accuracy of beneficial forecast. Results show that low accuracy forecast but higher than critical threshold can increase hydropower generation. Hunjiang has a low accuracy long-term forecast with qualified rate being 30–40 %, but annual hydropower generation can be increased by 14.86–29.58 million kWh. The influence mechanism of forecast errors on hydropower operation presents three typical scenarios, two of which are harmless. One is that the error tolerance of operation rules can avoid some decision-making errors; the other one is that when current misreporting is consistent with the inflow in a longer lead time, the misreporting may instead be beneficial. We conclude that low accuracy long-term forecast is valuable but higher accuracy brings higher benefits.