Value of Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Information: Cost-Effectiveness-Based Approach for GCR Reduction

Abstract

In this paper, we develop and illustrate a framework for determining the potential value of global catastrophic risk (GCR) research in reducing uncertainties in the assessment of GCR levels and the effectiveness of risk-reduction options. The framework uses the decision analysis concept of the expected value of perfect information in terms of the cost-effectiveness of GCR reduction. We illustrate these concepts using available information on impact risks from two types of near-Earth objects (asteroids or extinct comets) as well as nuclear war, and consideration of two risk-reduction measures. We also discuss key challenges in extending the calculations to all GCRs and risk-reduction options, as part of an agenda for comprehensive, integrated GCR research. While real-world research would not result in perfect information, even imperfect information could have significant value in informing GCR-reduction decisions. Unlike most value of information approaches, our equation for calculating value of information is based on risk-reduction cost-effectiveness, to avoid implicitly equating lives and dollars, e.g., using a value of statistical life (VSL), which may be inappropriate given the scale of GCRs. Our equation for value of information may be useful in other domains where VSLs would not be appropriate.