Value of Emerging and Enabling Technologies in Reducing Costs, Risks and Timescales for CCS

Abstract

A range of digital and enabling technologies are already helping the energy sector, as well as others, to reduce costs, risks and timescales for projects. The pace of development and adoption of these technologies is growing rapidly, and digitalisation is expected to deliver significant improvements in energy systems in the coming years. Many of the applications of digital technologies are expected to be transferable to CCS but the implications of these technologies for CCS have not previously been fully investigated or quantified. Through a horizon scanning exercise, this study aimed to understand the relevance of digital and enabling technologies for CCS and assess the benefits that they could offer to large-scale CCS deployment. A wide range of emerging and enabling technologies were considered, including: Robotics, drones and autonomous systems; Novel sensors; Digital innovations such as Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things and blockchain; Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR/AR); Additive manufacturing; Nanomaterials and composites. Digital and enabling technologies offer a range of benefits to projects, including improved process efficiency, improved decision-making, and improved durability of components. Many of the applications and associated benefits of these technologies for CCS are likely to be similar in nature to those experienced in the energy and oil and gas sectors. In addition, several applications of digital and enabling technologies are already being developed for CCS, specifically: subsurface sensing techniques, robotics and environmental sensing for storage site monitoring, machine learning for materials discovery, and additive manufacturing of capture technology components. The benefits of digital and enabling technologies are projected to be realised gradually, with little cost savings accessible to projects beginning operation within the next 5 years (2025) but greater cost savings available from 2030 and out to 2040. This reflects both the current maturity level of the relevant technologies and the development timescales of CCS projects. While a large proportion of CCS costs are due to capex, the majority of applications of digital and enabling technologies affect opex; therefore only modest savings in base project costs (capex, opex and fuel) are projected. However, reflecting the value of the benefits offered by many of the digital and emerging technologies, more significant cost reductions across the chain are projected to be in cost components associated with facility downtime (due to planned or unplanned maintenance) and supply chain losses of CO2. Across the CCS chain, the largest absolute cost savings ($/tCO2) are projected for capture plants, with the largest relative cost savings (%) for storage sites. On a global scale, total cumulative savings of close to $200bn (10%) in lifetime costs of projects can be possible. Aside from cost, a number of technical, political and economic challenges are limiting large-scale CCS deployment. The main risks of relevance to applications of digital technologies are expected to be related to technical viability, although some political and financial barriers may also be addressed through technologies that increase confidence in projects. For example, intelligent modelling and improved sensing techniques and procedures may improve confidence in prediction of storage site performance (injectivity and capacity) and improved confidence in CO2 storage as a long-term solution through improved monitoring. Based on current technology developments, timescales for global CCS deployment are not expected to be significantly reduced by the introduction of digital and enabling technologies. However, it is possible that disruptive developments not foreseen here may become relevant in future.