Value-Based Multidisciplinary Techniques for Commercial Aircraft System Design

Abstract

A quantitative tool is presented to perform program-level valuation of commercial aircraft designs. The algorithm used expands on traditional net present value methods through the explicit consideration of market uncertainty and the ability of the firm to react to such uncertainty through real-time decision making throughout the course of the aircraft program. The algorithm links three separate models, performance, cost, and revenue, into a system-level analysis by viewing the firm as a decision-making agent facing continuous choices between several different operating modes. An optimization problem is set up and solved using a dynamic programming approach to find a set of operating mode decisions that maximizes the firm's expected value from the aircraft project. The result is a quantification of value that can be used to make program-level design trades and to gain insight into the effects of uncertainty on a particular aircraft design. Examples are drawn from the blended-wing-body aircraft concept to demonstrate the operation of the program valuation tool.