Abstract

Value-added is a simple unencumbered profit measure of converting raw materials into products and is sensitive to a host of technological responses. Profitability is a key driver for the adoption of new technologies and, as demonstrated, value-added information in conjuction with conversion cost information can be a useful aid in predicting the timing of such technological change. Value-added and variable cost trends were analyzed over 1970 to 1984 for four softwood lumber producing regions in Canada. The observed value-added trend for each region's total product-mix was found to decline over time. The regional value-added trends for the production of lumber alone were also found to be declining, but at a faster rate than for each region's total product-mix. Projections of value-added and variable production cost trends indicate that all regional total product-mix conversion technologies will reach their profitable limits late in the 1990's. Additional analysis revealed that lumber conversion technologies in three of the four regions have already surpassed their feasible limit, implying that some dramatic changes in the industry's lumber production technological focus are both necessary and imminent.

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