Valuation of unpaid time savings on toll roads using transport model

Abstract

A well-known problem known worldwide is that demand on toll roads gets overestimated when traffic intensity is being predicted. This leads to inefficient operation of highways and loss of profit. Therefore, it is important to accurately predict flexible demand when designing a toll road. Flexibility of demand depends on VTTS and is usually determined by public polls.Purpose: the purpose of this article is to develop a method for estimating the amount of unpaid travel time savings on toll roads. The value of travel time savings is calculated on basis of a sociological survey. The amount of travel time savings is estimated on basis of objective data acquired, i.e. information about actual motorists’ trips in St. Petersburg on both free and paid roads. The value of travel time savings allows to realistically tune the parameters of a transport model for agents planning their trips. As a result, the transport model allows to estimate the total amount of time saved daily with a toll road.The cost of the travel time savings for St. Petersburg drivers as well as the total amount of unpaid time savings on the toll road is calculated. It turned out that the price of the time saved by motorists on most routes did not correspond to the established road fares. The research results show the potential to set up toll road fares based on the actual cost of the saved travel time, which could optimize toll road revenue.