Valuation of long-term coastal wetland changes in the U.S.

Abstract

Sea level rise threatens the coastal landscape, including coastal wetlands, which provide a unique natural habitat to a variety of animal and plant species as well as an array of ecosystem service flows of value to people. The economic valuation of potential changes in coastal wetland areas, while challenging, allows for a comparison with other types of economic impacts from climate change and enhances our understanding of the potential benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. In this study, we estimate an ensemble of future changes in coastal wetland areas considering both sea level rise, future greenhouse gas emissions, and accretion rate uncertainty, using outputs from the National Ocean and Atmospheric (NOAA) marsh migration model. By the end of the century, total wetland losses range from 2.0 to 10.7 million acres across sea level rise scenarios. For Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, cummulative net wetland area loss is 1.8 and 2.4 million acres by 2050 and 3.5 and 5.2 million acres by 2100. We then estimate economic impacts with two distinct approaches: restoration cost and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services considered are limited by what can be reliably quantified—namely, coastal property protection from coastal flooding and carbon sequestration, the latter using a social cost of carbon approach. By the end of the century, annual restoration costs reach $1.5 and $3.1 billion for RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The lost ecosystem services, together, reach annual economic impacts that are much higher, reaching $2.5 billion for RCP4.5 and $6.1 billion for RCP8.5.