Abstract
During the operating phase, the evaluation of the risks of failure generates additionnal information that is essential for water reservoir system management. This information throws light on the selection of a release policy for the mid-range operating horizon and helps to determine, at the beginning of each period of the short-range horizon, if the risks of failure resulting from the application of the current release policy remain acceptable. A method of evaluation of the risks of failure of a reservoir system, variables that are not explicitly accounted for in the determination of the release policy for the mid-range horizon, is described. The evaluation method uses a stochastic simulation model to reproduce the evolution of the system operated according to the current release policy. It estimates the risk of the various types of failure for a known state of the system at the beginning of a decision period and those that the system may reach at the beginning of the other periods of the evaluation horizon. It also computes the statistics of the various types of failure encountered and of the net benefits. The evaluation method is applied to a system of one reservoir and one powerhouse. Key words: reservoirs, failure, stochastic simulation, risk evaluation, release policy.
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