Valuation accuracy across Europe: a mass appraisal approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper was to compare valuation accuracy of eight European markets, using the same time period, data source and methodology. The emphasis was placed on the accuracy of held properties because previous studies showed that sold properties tend to be valued closer to the market. Real sales data was used to derive hedonic sale prices. The Heckman correction was employed to correct for sample selection bias. A comparison of simple differences between actual valuations and fitted prices showed that valuations were on average below fitted prices in all countries except the Netherlands, indicating a possible overvaluation problem of held properties in Europe. A comparison of the absolute difference showed that the Netherlands and Switzerland displayed the highest valuation accuracy. Italy and Sweden on the other hand were the markets with the lowest median valuation accuracy and largest spreads of observations. All countries, except Sweden, had a majority of observations within an absolute difference of 20%. The two most interesting conclusions from the analysis were that Germany and Switzerland did not differ significantly from other markets in terms of valuation accuracy and that Sweden was consistently the market with the lowest valuation accuracy.