Validation study of a prognostic classification in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who received irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy

Abstract

Five prognostic factors had been previously identified in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (MCRC) who received irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy. Patients were classified into three prognostic groups based on significant differences in median overall survival (OS). This study is conducted to validate this classification in an external validation cohort. This retrospective study included 193 patients of an external validation cohort who received irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy after first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy, with or without bevacizumab at three institutions. Three of the five predefined factors (poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma, LDH ≥400 IU/L, progression-free survival of first-line therapy <6 months) remained highly significant in the validation cohort, although two (performance status 2 and peritoneal metastasis) were associated with borderline significance. The distribution of the three prognostic groups (low risk = no factors, intermediate risk = 1 factor, high risk = 2 or more factors) was low risk (n = 68; 35 %), intermediate risk (n = 80; 41 %), and high risk (n = 45; 23 %). The median OS of each group were 19.8, 11.0, and 7.9 months, respectively, with significant differences between groups, as found in the previous cohort. The previous prognostic classification of patients with MCRC who received irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy was validated in another independent cohort. Validation in prospective studies is warranted.