Validation of weather reanalysis datasets and geospatial and techno-economic viability and potential assessment of concentrated solar power plants

Abstract

Accelerating the decarbonization of power sector requires strategic planning and multi-aspectual feasibility analysis of renewable energy systems including, but not limited to, meteorological, land-use, techno-economic and environmental parameters. In this study, at first, the suitability of reanalysis datasets of Direct Normal Irradiance, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and air pressure was investigated at different timescales and locations over Pakistan. High correlation (R > 0.9) and low bias is found for Surface Solar Radiation Data records – Heliosat East, after preprocessing, among radiation datasets in consideration. Likewise, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 datasets of temperature and air pressure strongly correlate with ground measurements whereas wind speed and relative humidity show peculiarity. Afterwards, resource maps from long-term timeseries are developed for each of the aforementioned parameters. In the second part, spatial feasibility and Analytical Hierarchy Process based site suitability is assessed utilizing site-specific meteorological, socio-economic and environmental parameters. Moreover, multi-parametric evaluation of techno-economic potential is performed using bias-corrected datasets. For technical potential, System Advisor Model’s Physical Trough Collector model is used for exclusively selected points. Additionally, cost of water usage is introduced in estimation of Levelized Cost of Electricity besides other parameters. Cumulative power capacity potential of 10,035 GW is identified for country, with net cost estimated below 0.096 USD/kWh. Nine sites are found to have generation potential greater than 1200 TWh/year, the individual capacity to fulfil total predicted energy demand of the country for year 2030. Around 6.5% of viable regions are found to be highly suitable for plant deployment. Land cover and lack of access to transmission network act as limiting barriers in installation of concentrated solar power plants at many potential sites across the country.