Validation of Thermal Models for Photovoltaic Cells under Hot Desert Climates

Abstract

The operating temperature of a solar photovoltaic (PV) cell, strongly affected by ambient conditions, is one of the key factors influencing the cell's conversion efficiency. In modelling PV performance, the choice of thermal model is therefore critical with potential impact on simulation results. Most of the traditional main market areas of PV systems are located in regions with a temperate climate. Consequently, performance modelling tools have also been designed and validated mainly based on measurements made in those regions. However, PV capacity building in locations with characteristically different ambient conditions calls for re-calibration of such tools. The present contribution aims to offer simulation tools better suited to the local conditions for effective PV deployment in areas with a hot desert climate. In this analysis, some widely-used operating cell temperature modelling tools are assessed through cross-validation based on weather, power output and module temperature data collected from a test field installed in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates. The resulting model providing the best fit with the observations gives an RMSE of 4.8% and a practically negligible bias. While most models perform well on clear days, every model is found to give poor predictions on cloudy days. Finally, a need for a more extensive analysis addressing different weather types and PV materials is identified.