Validation of the Minnesota Pectoralis Risk Score to predict mortality in the HeartMate 3 population

Abstract

The Minnesota Pectoralis Risk Score (MPRS) utilizes computed tomography-quantified thoracic muscle and clinical variables to predict survival after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. The model has not been prospectively tested in HeartMate 3 recipients. A single-center HeartMate 3 cohort from July 2016 to July 2021 (n=108) was utilized for this analysis. Cohort subjects with complete covariates for MPRS calculation (pectoralis muscle measures, Black race, creatinine, total bilirubin, body mass index, bridge to transplant status, and presence/absence of contrast) implanted after MPRS development were included. MPRS were calculated on each subject. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to test model discrimination at 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality post-LVAD. Next, the performance of the 1-year post-LVAD outcome was compared to the HeartMate 3 survival risk score (HM3RS). The mean age was 58 (15years), 80% (86/108) were male, and 26% (28/108) were destination therapy. The area under the curve (AUC) for the MPRS model to predict post-LVAD mortality was 0.73 at 30days, 0.78 at 90days, and 0.81 at 1year. The AUC for the HM3RS for the 1-year outcome was 0.693. Each 1-unit point of the MPRS was associated with a significant increase in the hazard rate of death after LVAD (hazard ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.5-3.0, p<0.0001). The MPRS had high performance in this prospective validation, particularly with respect to 90-day and 1-year post-LVAD mortality. Such a tool can provide additional information regarding risk stratification to aid informed decision-making.