Abstract
The accurate assessment of risk of sexual reoffense for juveniles has the potential to inform many actions, including the segregation of low risk from high risk offenders, allocation of limited resources, matching treatment assignments and other programming with risk, and implementation of various state and federal regulations (e.g., registration and community notification laws) (Epperson, Ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006). The Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool – II (JSORRAT-II; Epperson et al., 2006) is the only known fully actuarially-derived risk assessment tool designed specifically for juveniles who have offended sexually (JSOs). However, it has yet to be validated. To test the predictive validity of the JSORRAT-II, the present study employed an archival file review of an exhaustive and representative sample of JSOs ages 11 through 17 from Utah (n = 566) who entered the juvenile justice system for a sexual offense, their index offense, in 1996 or 1997. Juvenile sexual recidivism data, defined as a new formal charge for a sexual offense prior to age 18, was obtained for all JSOs in order to determine the predictive validity of the JSORRAT-II. The results indicated that the tool can be scored with a high degree of reliability (ICC = .96) when research assistants received extensive training and oversight. Additionally, the JSORRAT-II predicted juvenile sexual recidivism at greater than chance levels (ROC = .64, 95% CI from .58 to .71), and this level of predictive accuracy was the same regardless of time at risk. Because this level of accuracy was substantially below the values reported on the original development sample, several additional analyses were carried out to attempt to find its cause. First, several coded variables were examined to determine their impact on the predictive validity. Of these, it appeared that the JSORRAT-II did not perform well for JSOs who had exclusively offended against siblings (ROC = .58; 95% CI
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