Validation of the French 3-year prognostic score for death or lung transplant in the United States cystic fibrosis population

Abstract

In 2017, Nkam et al. published a prognostic score to predict death or lung transplant within 3 years among adult cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Their model was developed using French CF registry data and was subsequently validated in the Canadian CF registry. We evaluated this prognostic score using data from adult patients with CF in the United States (US) CF Foundation Patient registry, combined with lung transplant records from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Registry (2013 to 2016) (n=11,542). We found that the prognostic score had a very good discriminative index predicting death or lung transplant in the US CF population (AUC 0.88, 95% CI 0.88-0.89) with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.83 (95% CI 2.69 – 2.97) for each unit increase in the score. However, it did not provide significant additional utility over an FEV1 ≤30% of predicted as a predictor of death or lung transplant.