Validation of the C-DU(KE) Calculator as a Predictor of Outcomes in Patients Enrolled in Steroids for Corneal Ulcer and Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to validate the C-DU(KE) calculator as a predictor of treatment outcomes on a data set derived from patients with culture-positive ulcers. C-DU(KE) criteria were compiled from a data set consisting of 1063 cases of infectious keratitis from the Steroids for Corneal Ulcer Trial (SCUT) and Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial (MUTT) studies. These criteria include corticosteroid use after symptoms, visual acuity, ulcer area, fungal etiology, and elapsed time to organism-sensitive therapy. Univariate analysis was performed followed by multivariable logistic regressions on culture-exclusive and culture-inclusive models to assess for associations between the variables and outcome. The predictive probability of treatment failure, defined as the need for surgical intervention, was calculated for each study participant. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve for each model. Overall, 17.9% of SCUT/MUTT participants required surgical intervention. Univariate analysis showed that decreased visual acuity, larger ulcer area, and fungal etiology had a significant association with failed medical management. The other 2 criteria did not. In the culture-exclusive model, 2 of 3 criteria, decreased vision [odds ratio (OR) = 3.13, P < 0.001] and increased ulcer area (OR = 1.03, P < 0.001), affected outcomes. In the culture-inclusive model, 3 of 5 criteria, decreased vision (OR = 4.9, P < 0.001), ulcer area (OR = 1.02, P < 0.001), and fungal etiology (OR = 9.8, P < 0.001), affected results. The area under the curves were 0.784 for the culture-exclusive model and 0.846 for the culture-inclusive model which were comparable to the original study. The C-DU(KE) calculator is generalizable to a study population from large international studies primarily taking place in India. These results support its use as a risk stratification tool assisting ophthalmologists in patient management.