Validation of Sendai and Fukuoka consensus guidelines in predicting malignancy in patients with preoperatively diagnosed mucinous pancreatic cystic neoplasms.

Abstract

The Sendai consensus guidelines (SCG) and Fukuoka consensus guidelines (FCG) have been examined for their roles in predicting advanced neoplasia (AN) in pancreatic cystic neoplasm (PCN) patients with mixed results. We aim to evaluate the utilities of both guidelines in a Chinese cohort with preoperatively diagnosed mucinous PCNs. One hundred ninety-seven patients who underwent resections from 2008 to 2015 in Zhong Shan Hospital, Fudan University for suspected PCNs were retrospectively reviewed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated and compared to measure diagnostic value. Fifty-five patients were diagnosed with AN pathologically. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the SCG high-risk (SCGHR ) criteria were 87.3%, 28.2%, 32.0%, 85.1%, and 44.7%, respectively, and for the FCG high-risk (FCGHR ) criteria, they were 40.0%, 95.8%, 78.6%, 80.5%, and 80.2%, respectively. ROC curve comparison analyses showed that the FCGHR were superior to the SCGHR (P = 0.02). The performance of the FCGHR was enhanced with CA19-9 incorporated (P = 0.004). The FCG were superior to the SCG in this retrospective analysis, which could be further improved by the incorporation of CA19-9. However, the practical safety remains uncertain because of missed invasive carcinoma cases.