Validation of models in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of Hong Kong Liver Cancer with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system in a Chinese cohort.

Abstract

Accurate staging information is necessary to determine the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to guide subsequent patient management. This study aims to investigate the prognostic performance of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) classification in a Chinese cohort of HCC patients. A total of 668 HCC patients between 2003 and 2012 were included. Performances of the HKLC and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC), concordance-index (c-index), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Independent prognostic factors of survival were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Independent predictors of survival were Child-Pugh grade (P=0.009), lactate dehydrogenase (P<0.001) and albumin (P=0.001) levels, tumor location (P=0.032), tumor number (P<0.001), tumor size (P<0.001), and vascular invasion (P<0.001). Discriminatory ability was shown to be better for HKLC (AUC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.740, 0.695, and 0.615, respectively) than BCLC (AUC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.622, 0.569, and 0.548, respectively). On the basis of AIC and c-index, HKLC had a higher predictive power for survival (AIC=4709.480, c-index=0.805) than BCLC (AIC=4852.708, c-index=0.717). In our selected patient population, whose main etiology was hepatitis B, the HKLC system was more suitable for predicting prognosis in a Chinese cohort of HCC patients than the BCLC classification.