Validation of Machine Learning Model Performance in Predicting Blood Transfusion After Primary and Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty

Abstract

BackgroundThe rates of blood transfusion following primary and revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) remain as high as 9% and 18%, respectively, contributing to patient morbidity and healthcare costs. Existing predictive tools are limited to specific populations, thereby diminishing their clinical applicability. This study aimed to externally validate our previous institutionally developed machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the risk of postoperative blood transfusion following primary and revision THA using national inpatient data. MethodsFive ML algorithms were trained and validated using data from 101,266 primary THA and 8,594 revision THA patients from a large national database to predict postoperative transfusion risk after primary and revision THA. Models were assessed and compared based on discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. ResultsThe most important predictors of transfusion following primary and revision THA were preoperative hematocrit (<39.4%) and operation time (>157 minutes), respectively. All ML models demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) >0.8) in primary and revision THA patients, with artificial neural network (AUC = 0.84, slope = 1.11, intercept = −0.04, Brier score = 0.04), and elastic-net-penalized logistic regression (AUC = 0.85, slope = 1.08, intercept = −0.01, and Brier score = 0.12) performing best, respectively. On decision curve analysis, all 5 models demonstrated a higher net benefit than the conventional strategy of intervening for all or no patients in both patient cohorts. ConclusionsThis study successfully validated our previous institutionally developed ML algorithms for the prediction of blood transfusion following primary and revision THA. Our findings highlight the potential generalizability of predictive ML tools developed using nationally representative data in THA patients.