Validation of lymphocyte to monocyte ratio in resected small bowel adenocarcinoma as a predictor of survival.

Abstract

e15799 Background: Lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) has been described as a prognostic factor in many solid tumors including colorectal adenocarcinoma. LMR has not been investigated as a prognostic factor in small bowel cancers. In this study, we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors in resected small bowel adenocarcinoma including LMR. Methods: Two hundred forty-one patients who underwent resection for stage I-III small bowel adenocarcinoma were retrospectively identified utilizing the pathology database at a single tertiary referral institution from 1994 to 2015. All patients had complete follow up data and were included in the survival analysis. One hundred sixty-nine patients had preoperative peripheral blood counts available for analysis. Plot of martingale residuals against LMR were used to establish best cutoff points for LMR. A training set for LMR included consecutively identified patients from 2006 to 2015, and a validation cohort including patients identified from 1994 to 2005 was used. Overall survival was performed utilizing Kaplan-Meier method, and Wilcoxon tests were used for statistical comparisons. Cox proportional hazards were performed and all tests were two sided. P value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Median overall survival for the entire group was 54.5 months (95% CI: 37.2-81.2 months) with 5- and 10-year overall survival of 48% and 35%. The training set for LMR included 81 patients, and the validation set included 88 patients. The cutoff of 1.56 was chosen based on most significant p value (p = 0.002). When combined, the overall area under the curve (AUC) for LMR was 0.63, p < 0.01, (specificity 37.3%, sensitivity 90.1%, positive predictive value 33.1%, and negative predictive value 92.2%). There were 126 patients with LMR > 1.56 and 43 patients with LMR < 1.56 in the entire cohort. In multivariate analysis, LMR under 1.56 was a negative prognostic factor, HR = 2.20 (95% CI: 1.27-3.84, p < 0.01). In addition to LMR, age > 60 years and advanced T stage were independently negative predictors of overall survival in all patients. Conclusions: Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio < 1.56 is a validated negative prognostic factor in resected small bowel adenocarcinoma.