Abstract
PurposeTo perform an external validation of the Assessment for Retreatment with Transarterial Chemoembolization (ART) and α-fetoprotein (AFP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Child–Pugh, and response (ABCR) scores and to compare them in terms of prognostic power. Materials and MethodsFrom 2000 to 2015, 871 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolization at a tertiary referral hospital, and 176 met all inclusion and exclusion criteria for both scores and were analyzed. Nineteen percent (n = 34) had BCLC stage A disease and 81% had stage B disease. Thirty-nine patients (22%) presented with elevated AFP levels. Overall survival was calculated. Scores were validated and compared with a Harrell C-index, integrated Brier score (IBS), and prediction error curves. ResultsBefore the second chemoembolization procedure, 22 patients (12%) showed an increase of 1 point in Child–Pugh score and 51 patients (22%) had an increase of ≥ 2 points. Thirty-one patients (23%) showed a > 25% increase in aspartate aminotransferase level, and 114 (65%) showed a response to treatment. Consequently, 127 patients (72%) had a low ART score and 49 (28%) had a high ART score. One hundred fifty-eight patients (90%) had a low ABCR score, whereas 18 (10%) had a high ABCR score. Low and high ART score groups had median survival durations of 20.8 and 15.3 mo, respectively. Harrell C-indexes were 0.572 and 0.608, and IBSs were 0.135 and 0.128, for ART and ABCR, respectively. For both scores, an increase in Child–Pugh score ≥ 2 points and a radiologic response were significantly associated with survival. ConclusionsBoth scores were of limited predictive value, and neither was sufficient to support clear-cut clinical decisions. Further effort is necessary to determine criteria for making valid clinical predictions.
Published Version
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