Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang, South China

Abstract

In this study, an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang, South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model. This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning. A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability. The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study; the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries, rivers, and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang Province. Therefore, the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.