Validation of American Thyroid Association Ultrasound Risk Assessment of Thyroid Nodules Selected for Ultrasound Fine-Needle Aspiration.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to validate the American Thyroid Association (ATA) sonographic risk assessment of thyroid nodules. The ATA sonographic risk assessment was prospectively applied to 206 thyroid nodules selected for ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (US-FNA), and analyzed with The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (TBSRTC), as well as surgical pathology for the subset undergoing surgical excision. The analysis included 206 thyroid nodules averaging 2.4 cm (range 1-7 cm; standard error of the mean 0.07). Using the ATA US pattern risk assessment, nodules were classified as high (4%), intermediate (31%), low (38%), and very low (26%) risk of malignancy. Nodule size was inversely correlated with sonographic risk assessment, as lower risk nodules were larger on average (p < 0.0001). Malignancy rates determined by cytology/surgical pathology were high 100%, intermediate 11%, low 8%, and very low 2%, which were closely aligned with ATA malignancy risk estimates (high 70-90%, intermediate 10-20%, low 5-10%, and very low 3%). ATA US pattern risk assessment also appropriately predicted the proportion of nodules classified as malignant or suspicious for malignancy through TBSRTC classification-high (77%), intermediate (6%), low (1%), and very low 0%-as well as benign TBSRTC classification-high (0%), intermediate (47%), low (61%), and very low (70%) (p < 0.0001). Malignancy rates of surgically excised, cytologically indeterminate nodules followed ATA sonographic risk stratification (high 100%, intermediate 21%, low 17%, and very low 12%; p = 0.003). This prospective study supports the new ATA sonographic pattern risk assessment for selection of thyroid nodules for US-FNA based upon TBSRTC and surgical pathology results. In the setting of indeterminate cytopathology, nodules categorized as atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance with ATA high-risk sonographic patterns have a high likelihood of being malignant.