Validation of a seven-question tool (PRISMA-7) in predicting prognosis of older adults in the emergency department: A prospective study

Abstract

ObjectivesOlder patients arrive at the emergency department (ED) with complex medical challenges, and the current ED triage models frequently undertriage the severity of illness in older adults. There is increasing awareness regarding the importance of identifying frailty in older patients in the context of urgent care. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of the seven-question tool of the Program on Research for Integrating Services of the Maintenance of Autonomy (PRISMA-7) in the ED for 28-day mortality among older adults. DesignA prospective polycentric observational study. SettingWest China Hospital of Sichuan University, Shangjinnanfu of West China Hospital, and People's Hospital of Henan Province. ParticipantsED patients aged ≥65 years from the three tertiary care centers over an 8-week period. Primary and secondary outcomesThe primary outcome, 28-day all-cause mortality, was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model to assess the predictive validity. The secondary endpoints, intensive care unit (ICU) transfer was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, compared with trained study assistants. ResultsThe final study population comprised 1043 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for 28-day mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76–0.84), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68–0.77), and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.73–0.83) for PRISMA-7, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), and quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), respectively.There was no difference in the AUC between PRISMA-7 and qSOFA(p = 0.374).The AUC for ICU admission was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75–0.80), 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.66), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64–0.72) for PRISMA-7, ESI, and qSOFA, respectively.The AUC for ICU admission between PRISMA-7 and ESI(p<0.001), PRISMA-7 and qSOFA(p<0.001), qSOFA and ESI(p = 0.005) was statistically significant. ConclusionOur findings reveal that PRISMA-7 improves the prediction of ICU admission, but there is no significant difference when it comes to all-cause mortality. PRISMA-7 appears to be a reliable and valid instrument for identifying frailty in the ED.Trial registration number: ChiCTR2100046545.