Validation of a multispecies forest dynamics model using 50-year growth from Eucalyptus forests in eastern Australia

Abstract

One of the key problems confronting ecological forecasting is the validation of computer models. Here we report successful validation of a forest dynamics model Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS), adapted from the JABOWA-II forest succession model. This model and many variants derived from it have successfully simulated growth dynamics of uneven-aged mixed forests under changing environment with a moderate amount of input data. But rarely are adequate time-series data available for quantitative model validation. This study tested the performance of EDS in projecting the tree density, tree diameter at breast height ( dbh), tree height, basal area and aboveground biomass of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests in St. Mary state forests of eastern Australia. The test data were collected between 1951 and 2005. Every tree was uniquely numbered, tagged and measured in consecutive re-measurements. Projected growth attributes were compared with those observed in an independent validation dataset. The model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91.7%), dbh (92.3%), total tree height (82.8%), basal area (89.3%) and aboveground biomass (87.6%) compared to the observed attributes. These results suggest that the EDS model can provide reasonable capability in projecting growth dynamics of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests.