Validation of a first-trimester screening model for pre-eclampsia in an unselected population.

Abstract

To validate the performance of a previously constructed first-trimester predictive model for pre-eclampsia (PE) in routine care of an unselected population. A validation cohort of 4621 consecutive women attending their routine first-trimester ultrasound examination was used to test a prediction model for PE that had been developed previously in 5170 women. The prediction model included maternal factors, uterine artery Doppler, blood pressure and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A. Model performance was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and ROC curves from both cohorts were compared unpaired. Among the 4203 women included in the final analysis, 169 (4.0%) developed PE, including 141 (3.4%) cases of late-onset PE and 28 (0.7%) cases of early-onset PE. For early-onset PE, the model showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), which did not differ significantly (P = 0.37) from that obtained in the construction cohort (0.88 (95% CI, 0.78-0.99)). For late-onset PE, the final model showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.77), which did not differ significantly (P = 0.49) from that obtained in the construction cohort (0.75 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82)). The prediction model for PE achieved a similar performance to that obtained in the construction cohort when tested on a subsequent cohort of women, confirming its validity as a predictive model for PE. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.