Validating the GCP data hypothesis using internet search data

Abstract

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) operates under the hypothesis that events that elicit widespread emotion or draw the simultaneous attention of a large number of people could affect the output of hardware-generated random numbers. The hypothesis thus suggests that the mind, in some sense, can interact with matter at a distance, a controversial suggestion because such a mechanism could challenge some current understandings. Testing the validity of the hypothesis thus carries substantial merit as negative results would reinforce already established scientific perceptions, whereas positive results would point in the direction of a needed update. In this paper, it is hypothesized that events inflicting a strong emotional response should also trigger the need for information. As such, global internet search trends should correlate with the GCP data, allowing for the hypothesis to be objectively tested. In practice, Google Trends search data is used to construct several search indexes that are correlated with GCP data aggregates using time series statistics. It is found that the GCP data significantly correlates with the indexes and can be used to improve the statistical model's in-sample fit. Furthermore, it is found that out-of-sample forecasts can be made more accurate if the GCP data is used. The results thus point toward the validity of the GCP data hypothesis and that the data produced by the GCP can be put to practical use by, for example, forecasters.